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How Will NFP Affect the Markets?

Goldman Sachs expects a strong jobs report for the US labor market in September, with an estimated 200,000 increase in non-farm payrolls. They expect the unemployment rate to fall from 3.8% to 3.7%, showing continued improvement. Average hourly earnings are expected to increase by 0.3%, with a modest impact on the year-over-year rate, which is projected to decline slightly to 4.28%. These insights reflect a positive trajectory in the post-pandemic economic recovery and highlight the continued resilience of the labor market.

US DOLLAR – D1 Timeframe

The US Dollar on the Daily timeframe seems to have maintained a steady upward climb, albeit within a channel. Considering that the forecasts seem to be in favour of the US Dollar, I expect to see price bounce off the support trendline and reach towards the supply zone as marked.

Analyst’s Expectations:

  • Direction: Bullish
  • Target: 106.969
  • Invalidation: 105.595

EURUSD – D1 Timeframe

Since we expect the Dollar to get stronger, it is only logical that we anticipate a bearish move on EURUSD which will likely bring price back into the demand zone. If the NFP goes otherwise, then we will expect to see immediate bullish pressure from the current price region.

Analyst’s Expectations:

  • Direction: Bearish
  • Target: 1.04136
  • Invalidation: 1.06265

GBPUSD – D1 Timeframe

The downward trend on GBPUSD seems poised to continue even further after the NFP release because a stronger Dollar would naturally yield a bearish turn on GBPUSD and vice versa. In the event that the release follows the forecast, I wouldn’t hesitate to go bearish on GBPUSD.

Analyst’s Expectations:

  • Direction: Bearish
  • Target: 1.19276
  • Invalidation: 1.22996


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