AUDUSD has shifted from bearish to neutral in the short-term as it continues to trade in a range since October 26 after breaking below the 200-day moving average.
Risk is tilted to the downside as AUDUSD has retraced more than half of the upleg from 0.7328 to 0.8124. The pair is now trapped between the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels, with resistance at 0.7723 and support at 0.7631.
MACD remains in bearish territory and is sloping down, suggesting there is scope for further downside. RSI is also in bearish territory below 50 but is currently neutral, indicating momentum has weakened and the market has entered a consolidation phase.
A daily closing below the key 0.7600 level would see AUDUSD re-enter a bearish phase and another leg lower towards 0.7525 and 0.7328 cannot be ruled out.
Only a move above 0.7900 would shift the focus back to the upside to open the way towards the 0.8124 peak. A rise above this point would confirm a resumption of the uptrend from 0.7328.
In the near-term, the neutral phase is expected to continue, while the medium-term outlook remains bearish.
