The release of disappointing US labour market data on Friday unsettled both stock market participants and the President of the United States:
→ Donald Trump promptly dismissed Erica McEntarfer, Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, accusing her of falsifying employment data.
→ Stock indices accelerated their decline, with the Nasdaq 100 Index (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) falling below its 16 June low.
However, US stock indices staged a strong recovery on Monday. According to Reuters, yesterday marked the largest daily percentage gain since 27 May.
Why Did Stock Indices Rise?
Possible reasons include:
→ Buyers were attracted by the falling share prices of companies that, for the most part, had delivered strong quarterly earnings;
→ Market participants are betting on a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September (a move strongly advocated by Trump), which could support both the economy and the stock market.
Technical Analysis of the Nasdaq 100 Chart (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen)
In our earlier analysis of the Nasdaq 100 Index (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen), we:
→ Identified a primary ascending channel (marked in blue);
→ Highlighted that the price had risen above the upper boundary of the channel (a sign of excessive optimism);
→ Anticipated a potential correction towards the 23,020 level.
However, the correction turned out to be more substantial than initially expected.
As a result of the price movements on Friday and Monday:
→ The blue channel was widened twofold;
→ The price found support at its new lower boundary and reversed upwards;
→ As of today, the Nasdaq 100 index is trading near the median line.
This can be interpreted as the market aggressively digesting recent corporate earnings reports and the prospects of a rate cut in light of a deteriorating labour market. Demand and supply may reach a new equilibrium, potentially leading to a consolidation phase around the median of the widened channel.
It is also possible that the area marked in orange—where the price previously rallied strongly, indicating a buyer-driven imbalance—may now act as support. Resistance levels might include:
→ Former support at 23,320;
→ 23,440 – the level at which bears broke through the purple channel.
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