The minor corrective pull-back of -2% seen in the AUD/USD ex-post FOMC from 17 September 2025 high of 0.6707 to 22 September 2025 low of 0.6575 has reached an inflection point to kick-start a potential fresh bullish impulsive up move sequence.
Fig. 1: 1-day rolling performance of the US dollar against major currencies of 24 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView)
In today’s Asia session, the Australian dollar outperformed all major peers against the greenback. On a 1-day rolling basis as of 24 September 2025, the US dollar slipped -0.4% versus the AUD, outpacing the modest -0.1% intraday decline in the US Dollar Index (see Fig. 1).
The AUD’s intraday strength was underpinned by Australia’s latest CPI report, which showed August inflation accelerating to 3.0% y/y from 2.8% in July, beating expectations of 2.9%. This marks the highest reading since July 2024, a 13-month high.
Let’s now focus on the latest technical analysis factors of the AUD/USD to decipher its latest short-term (1 to 3 days) trajectory and key levels to watch.
Fig. 2: AUD/USD minor trend as of 24 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView)
Fig. 3: AUD/USD medium-term & major trends as of 24 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView)
Preferred trend bias (1-3 days)
Bullish bias above 0.6580 key short-term pivotal support for the AUD/USD for the next intermediate resistance to come in at 0.6655 before a retest on the major resistance of 0.6680/0.6700 (see Fig. 2).
Key elements
- The major resistance of the AUD/USD stands at 0.6700, which is defined by the upper boundary of the multi-month “Expanding Wedge” range configuration in place since 24 April 2025 (see Fig. 3).
- The 0.6580 key short-term pivotal support confluences with the rising 20-day moving average that managed to stall the prior three days of decline in the AUD/USD (see Fig. 2).
- The hourly RSI momentum indicator of the AUD/USD has staged a bullish momentum breakout from its former descending resistance (see Fig 2).
- The yield spread between Australia’s 2-year sovereign bond and its US Treasury counterpart narrowed from -0.21% on 23 September 2025 to -0.10% at the time of writing. This contraction in the US yield premium has added support to bullish momentum in AUD/USD (see Fig 2).
Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days)
A break below 0.6580 key short-term support negates the bullish scenario on the AUD/USD to expose the 0.6555 medium-term pivotal support.
