The pair ticked higher on Tuesday, leaving temporary footstep at 112.36 (Mon/Tue lows) intact but remaining below initial barrier at 112.78 (daily Kijun-sen).

Monday’s close in red and repeated rejection at daily cloud top, as well as repeated failure to close above Kijun-sen, was bearish signal.

Risk of deeper pullback on loss of 112.36 handle and extension below 111.96 (daily Tenkan-sen) remains in play and scenario would include extension towards layers of strong supports, provided by converged 10SMA (111.80), 200SMA (111.68) and 100SMA (111.57).

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Alternative scenario requires sustained break above cloud top (113.12) to signal continuation of recovery from 110.83 (27 Nov low).

Res: 112.78, 113.12, 113.24, 113.81
Sup: 112.36, 111.96, 111.80, 111.68


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