As shown on the Dollar Index (DXY) chart, the strength of the US currency is currently hovering near an important high reached in August. Market sentiment is being influenced by:
→ the ongoing government shutdown, which has already become the longest in history;
→ traders’ assessment of last week’s developments, including the Fed’s interest rate cut, the meeting between the US and Chinese presidents in South Korea, and quarterly earnings reports from major corporations.
Adding to the turbulence is the political factor: according to media reports, Democrats have achieved victories in several local elections. Notably, Zohran Mamdani – a Muslim candidate from the Democratic Party – has been elected Mayor of New York for the first time.
Technical Analysis of the DXY Chart
It is worth recalling that on 19 September we published an important analysis of the DXY chart, in which we:
→ highlighted the false breakout of the 1 July low;
→ suggested a bullish scenario.
Following this, the price rose to the upper boundary of the red channel. In our earlier analysis, we:
→ constructed an ascending channel;
→ anticipated that the upward trajectory would remain relevant.
That scenario played out – demand proved strong enough to overcome:
→ resistance around the 95-point level, where a double-top pattern (a–b) had previously formed;
→ the psychological barrier at 100 points.
It is possible that the 3.7% rise in the Dollar Index over roughly one and a half months could attract sellers. The main intrigue now lies in whether we will see an aggressive reversal accompanied by a false breakout – similar to what occurred in September, but this time in a downward direction.
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