As can be observed on the XAG/USD chart, the price of silver has once again dropped below the psychological $70 level. At the same time, this week has been marked by sharp fluctuations: on Monday, prices traded below $65, while as recently as yesterday, silver reached $74 per ounce.
Market volatility is being driven by ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Conflicting statements from the United States and Iran regarding potential peace negotiations continue to unsettle financial markets. According to media reports:
- → Washington maintains that negotiations are ongoing, with the Trump administration reportedly delivering a 15-point proposal to Iran via intermediaries, aimed at resolving the conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
- → Iran, in turn, has stated that it does not intend to negotiate with the US, rejecting the proposed ceasefire and instead putting forward its own conditions.
On the morning of 19 March, analysing the XAG/USD chart, we:
- → concluded that the market was under significant pressure;
- → identified and plotted a descending channel (marked in red) on the silver price chart;
- → suggested that the channel’s median line could act as near-term resistance, thereby validating the structure.
Indeed, subsequent price action confirmed this framework, as indicated by the arrows:
- → the lower boundary acted as support on the same day;
- → yesterday, price reversed lower from the median line (which shifted from support to resistance), reinforcing the prevailing bearish sentiment observed throughout March.
From a bullish perspective:
- → the break below the 6 February low around the $64 level highlights aggressive demand — so-called “smart money” may have absorbed liquidity in this zone, positioning for higher prices;
- → silver may be in the process of forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern.
However, as long as price continues to trade below the red median line of the active channel, it would be premature to speak of any meaningful bullish conviction.
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