The US dollar remains under pressure, testing key support levels amid expectations of easing geopolitical tensions. The market continues to price in the possibility of renewed negotiations between the US and Iran, reducing demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset and supporting riskier instruments. Against this backdrop, currency pairs are showing heightened sensitivity to news flow and expectations regarding further developments.
An additional source of pressure on the dollar is the decline in US Treasury yields, which is driving a reassessment of Federal Reserve policy expectations. Market participants are weighing the likelihood of policy easing, while upcoming US macroeconomic data — including business activity indicators, import prices, and housing statistics — could adjust current expectations and set the direction for further moves.
USD/JPY
USD/JPY is moving lower, pressured by a weaker dollar and falling US yields. Despite the yen’s safe-haven status, current price action is largely driven by dollar dynamics and rate expectations. The move towards support reflects a market balance where pressure on the dollar outweighs demand for defensive assets.
A break of key levels could extend the decline, although stabilisation in yields may trigger a corrective rebound. Technical analysis suggests a potential retest of 158.60. A sustained move above 159.40 would be needed to signal a return of buying interest in the dollar.
Key events for USD/JPY:
- today at 15:30 (GMT+3): NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (US);
- today at 15:30 (GMT+3): speech by Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr;
- today at 20:45 (GMT+3): speech by FOMC member Michelle Bowman.
USD/CAD
USD/CAD is showing a more pronounced decline. Sellers have broken below the key 1.3800 support level, pushing the pair down towards 1.3730. A sustained move below current levels could open the way for further downside towards 1.3670–1.3700.
At the same time, profit-taking and anticipation of incoming data may lead to temporary consolidation within the 1.3730–1.3800 range. The pair remains highly sensitive to oil price fluctuations and shifting rate expectations.
Key events for USD/CAD:
- today at 15:30 (GMT+3): Canadian wholesale sales;
- today at 17:30 (GMT+3): US crude oil inventories;
- today at 21:00 (GMT+3): Federal Reserve Beige Book.
Current dynamics in USD/JPY and USD/CAD reflect a mix of geopolitical expectations, declining yields, and ongoing pressure on the dollar. Testing key support levels increases the likelihood of both continued downside in case of a break and a corrective rebound if stronger US macroeconomic data emerges.
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