After months of uncertainty and escalating tensions, the United States and Iran have reached a peace agreement that includes the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The deal appears solid for now, though markets remain cautious — particularly given President Trump’s unpredictable track record, which leaves room for potential reversals.
This shift in the geopolitical landscape has moved sentiment toward risk-on, offering relief to assets that had been under pressure in recent months. Cryptocurrencies, and Bitcoin in particular, are among the primary beneficiaries — especially given that BTC/USD is also sitting at a technically significant zone.
Technical Analysis of BTC/USD
At the beginning of the month, Bitcoin retested a key support level — both psychologically and technically — around the $60,000 area. The reaction was significant: from the 5 June low near $59,000, the price has recovered approximately 11%, a clear signal that buyers are actively defending this zone. Meanwhile, sellers may have taken profit following a prolonged bearish trend that has seen the asset lose more than 50% from its all-time highs.
Two scenarios are currently in play:
→ On the bullish side, the price has reacted from the $60,000 support zone and, should it achieve a decisive break above the $74,000–$75,000 area, the technical picture could shift meaningfully. This zone represents a particularly significant confluence: it coincides with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the last major bearish impulse, a descending trendline connecting the all-time high with the May 2026 highs, and the approaching 200-period EMA — a level Bitcoin has historically respected. Given the density of technical factors converging in this area, a confirmed break above it could open the door to a more sustained bullish recovery in the short- to medium-term.
→ On the bearish side, any renewed uncertainty around the peace deal — or a deterioration of conditions in the Strait of Hormuz — could weigh heavily on sentiment. In this scenario, a break below the $59,000 low would represent a significant structural failure, with the next meaningful support potentially found in the $54,000–$52,000 zone, where a previous demand area triggered the last major bull run.
Bitcoin, like most financial assets, is closely watching geopolitical developments. Will this peace deal be enough to reignite the leading cryptocurrency — or will uncertainty prevail?
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