Following the US dollar’s notable strength last week, European currencies have entered a period of consolidation. Investors and market participants have temporarily reduced trading activity ahead of a series of key macroeconomic releases from the euro area, the UK and the US, which could determine the next direction for EUR/USD and GBP/USD. At the same time, markets continue to monitor developments in the Middle East, as easing geopolitical tensions have somewhat reduced demand for safe-haven assets, allowing investors to shift their focus back to economic fundamentals.
Investor sentiment has also been supported by reports suggesting that the US and Iran may be close to reaching an agreement to halt mutual strikes and resume negotiations. The restoration of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has reduced concerns over disruptions to global oil supplies and contributed to greater stability across financial markets. Nevertheless, ongoing disagreements over the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and conflicting statements from Iranian officials indicate that geopolitical risks have not yet fully subsided.
EUR/USD
Following a test of the March low, a bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern formed on the daily timeframe. Technical analysis suggests that EUR/USD is trading within a sideways range between 1.1340 and 1.1430. Price action around these boundaries, together with the incoming macroeconomic data, should provide further clues regarding the pair’s next directional move.
Key events for EUR/USD:
- Today at 09:45 (GMT+3): France CPI.
- Today at 15:00 (GMT+3): Germany CPI.
- Today at 17:00 (GMT+3): US JOLTS Job Openings.
GBP/USD
After testing this year’s March low at 1.3160, sterling buyers regained the initiative and formed a bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern. The pair has since rebounded towards 1.3270, although any further upside is likely to depend on incoming macroeconomic data. Technical analysis suggests the pair may retest the 1.3270 level. A decisive break and close above this resistance could pave the way for further gains towards 1.3300–1.3310, while rejection from current resistance may trigger a decline back towards the 1.3140–1.3160 area.
Key events for GBP/USD:
- Today at 09:00 (GMT+3): UK GDP.
- Today at 13:40 (GMT+3): Speech by Bank of England Financial Policy Committee member Sarah Breeden.
- Today at 17:00 (GMT+3): US CB Consumer Confidence Index.
Following the sharp moves seen in recent sessions, the foreign exchange market has entered a wait-and-see mode. The release of key economic data on both sides of the Atlantic is likely to determine whether the current consolidation becomes the starting point for a recovery in European currencies or gives way to a renewed strengthening of the US dollar.
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