According to a Reuters poll, 73% of economists surveyed expected that BoJ will not start unwinding stimulus until 2020 or later. That’s nearly double of 37% last month. Around one third said BoJ’s July announcement as a small step on crafting the exit strategy. BoJ explicitly talked about allowing 10 year JGB yield to move between -0.1% and 0.1%. 77% of economists believed that would help bond market functioning.
On the economy, economists projected core CPI, excluding sales tax hike impact, to rise 0.9% in the fiscal year to March 2019, same as the prior fiscal year. That’ notably lower than BoJ’s own forecasts of 1.1% in fiscal 2019 and fiscal 2019. Economists also saw Japan GDP to grow 1.1% this fiscal year and then slow to 0.8% next.
The poll was taken from Aug. 3 to 8.