The State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) lowered both 2018 and 2019 Swiss growth forecasts significantly. SECO cited that “this is mainly due to weak domestic demand”. Also, “In the wake of the decline in international growth, Swiss foreign trade decreased. The appreciation of the Swiss franc in the meantime additionally slowed exports, while domestic demand also failed to stimulate growth. ”
- For 2018, growth projection is lowered to 2.6%, down from 2.9%.
- For 2019, growth projection is lowered to 1.5%, down from 2.0%.
- For 2020, growth is now estimated to be at 1.7%.
On inflation
- For 2018, CPI is projected to be at 1.0%, unrevised
- for 2019, CPI is projected to be at 0.5%, down from prior estimate of 0.8%
- For 2020, CPI is projected to pickup to 0.7%.
On more thing to now is that SECO’s projection was based on assumption that the three month LIBOR interest rate will climb to -0.5% in 2020.
