St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said overnight that the “spate of weaker data” is “probably mostly temporary”. And, the “notion of a rebound in the second quarter is a good forecast:. Meanwhile, it’s “premature to contemplate a rate cut here”. He added “you do want to watch the data closely”, and “you won’t really know that until you get to the July time frame.” To him, that would be the next time to revisit rate cut.

On yield curve inversion, Bullard said “you would have to get a wider variety of spreads to be inverted — the two-year/10-year in particular”. Also, he noted ” it would have to stay inverted and be meaningfully inverted for awhile, a matter of months or even quarters, before you would say it that it was sending a negative signal that’s in the same sense that it did historically.”


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