BoE rate decision is a major focus today and it will be Mark Carney’s last meeting as Governor. The central bank is more likely to keep Bank rate unchanged at 0.75%. Markets are just pricing in around 45% chance for a cut as of yesterday. Bets on a cut receded sharply last week after data showed strong improvement in business optimism. But the decision would be a close call.
Here are some suggested previews:
- Chance of BOE Rate Cut Balanced, as Weak Inflation is Offset by Strong Business Sentiment and Job Market
- Will The BoE Cut Rates?
- Bank of England: Could be a Tense Meeting
- BREXIT: Hints of Clarity as the UK Enters an 11-Month Transition Period
GBP/CHF fall from 1.3310 lost momentum after hitting 1.2528. Such decline is seen as a corrective move. In case of another fall, we’d expect strong support from 1.2447 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.1674 to 1.3310 at 1.2492) to contain downside and bring rebound. Break of 1.2854 resistance will bring retest of 1.3310 high. However, firm break of 1.2477 will likely bring deeper fall through 61.8% retracement at 1.2299.
