US commercial crude oil inventories rose 4.3m barrels in the week ending October 23, larger than expectation of 1.5m. At 492.4m barrels, inventories are about 9% above the five year average for this time of year. Gasoline inventories dropped -0.9m barrels. Distillate dropped -4.5m barrels. Propane/propylene rose 100k barrels. Commercial petroleum dropped -3.9m barrels.

WTI crude oil hits as low as 36.92 so far. Fall from 41.62 is still in progress despite stronger than expected but brief recovery earlier in the week. Outlook is unchanged that such fall is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 43.50. Deeper decline should be seen to 35.98/36.50 support zone first. Break will confirm and target 100% projection of 43.50 to 35.98 from 41.62 at 34.10, which is close to 34.36 structural support. For now, we don’t expect a firm break there.

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