US non-farm payroll is a major focus for today. Markets are expecting 520k job growth in November. Unemployment rate is expected to edge down by 0.1% to 6.8%. Looking at related indicators, ISM manufacturing employment dropped back into contraction at 48.4. But ISM services employment improved from 50.1 to 51.5. ADP private employment grew only 307k, missed expectations. Four-week moving average of initial jobless claims dropped from 787k to 740k. Overall, the set of data pointed to continuous growth in US employment, but the momentum could disappoint.
Dollar index’s medium term down trend resumed this week and accelerated to as low as 90.51 so far. It’s now close to a key support level at around 90 psychological level. That coincides with 38.2% projection of 102.99 to 91.74 from 94.30 at 90.00. Decisive break there would prompt further downside acceleration to 61.8% projection at 87.34, and solidify medium term downside momentum.
