NIESR said it expected the UK economy to contract by -3.8% in Q1 this year, “as stringent Covid-19 restrictions are expected remain elevated until early spring, along with the effects of post-Brexit adjustment”.
“The level of GDP in the fourth quarter remained about 8 per cent below pre-pandemic levels even before a third lockdown became necessary in January 2021. With Covid-19 restrictions expected to remain elevated until early spring, we anticipate a sharp decline in activity during the first quarter of the year. Nevertheless, growth will pick up from the second quarter onwards as restrictions ease on the back of a successful vaccination programme.” Dr Kemar Whyte, Senior Economist – Macroeconomic Modelling and Forecasting.
