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Fed upgrade 2021 GDP and inflation forecasts, expects lower unemployment rate

In the Fed’s new median economic projections:

  • 2021 GDP projection was raised from 4.2% to 6.5%. 2022 GDP projection was raised from 3.2% to 3.3%. But 2023 GDP projection was lowered from 2.4% to 2.2%.
  • Unemployment rate forecast was lowered from 5.0% to 4.5% in 2021, from 4.2% to 3.9% in 2022, and from 3.7% to 3.5% in 2023.
  • Core PCE inflation forecast was upgraded from 1.8% to 2.2% in 2021, from 1.9% to 2.0% in 2022, from 2.0% to 2.1% in 2023.
  • Federal funds rate projection was left unchanged at 0.1% throughout the projections horizon.

Full projections here.

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