US 10-year yield dropped sharply overnight, by -0.061 to close at 1.370, hitting the lowest level since February. Some analysts noted that the move reflected believes that inflation in the US, and even the strong growth, were transitory only. The move also came in tandem with notable pull back in major stock indexes. Focuses will now turn to FOMC minutes for more guidance.
The speed of the fall in TNX was a surprise, even though the direction isn’t. Prior rejection by 55 day EMA already hinted that corrective pattern from 1.765 would more likely extend lower than not. For the moment, we’d expect strong support 38.2% retracement of 0.504 to 1.765 at 1.283 to contain downside and bring rebound. In other words, there is room for further decline in the near term, but downside is relatively limited.