A Wild Week of Metals, Yields, Stocks and Dollar
Just after DOW hit new record high in the middle of last week, the rally was choked by skyrocketing treasury yields. Dollar surprisingly ended as the strongest one for the week, followed by Euro and then Sterling. Australian Dollar suffered most as it reversed some of the month's gains....
Yields Up, Stocks Down, Dollar and Yen Rebound
US stocks suffered steep selling overnight on sharp rally in treasury yields, and the selloff carried forward to Asian markets. Yen and Dollar ride on the turn in risk sentiments and rebounded, together with Dollar. Australian and New Zealand are in deep pull back, together with Sterling. Euro and...
10-yr yield breaks 1.5 after awful debt auctions, heading to 2%?
The fast acceleration in US yield was a major shocker to the markets overnight. Fed officials are generally unconcerned with recent rally. They even sounded upbeat about the development in the bond markets. But some analysts pointed to the poor demand in the "awful" bond auctions overnight. Now that...
The beginning of the End for Stimulus?
“The Fed is always last to know” the saying goes. Fed officials (and central bankers around the world) have been dovish to say the least over the last year. More recently, as bond yields have been climbing, Fed members have been outspoken talking about how inflation is not a...
Dollar Firm after 10-yr Yield Breached 1.3, But Near Term Resistance Still Intact
The strong rally in US treasury yield overnight pushed Dollar notably higher. The greenback is indeed the second strongest one for the week, just next to Sterling. Canadian Dollar is following closely with support by resilience in oil prices. ON the other hand, overall risk-on sentiment is keeping Yen...
US 10-yr yield hits 1.3, to target 1.43-1.48 next
US 10-year yield accelerated higher overnight and breached 1.3% for the first time in a year, before closing at 1.299, up 0.099. Reflation trade over the massive US stimulus package, together with loose Fed policy was a factor in driving funds out of treasuries. Also, there is increasing optimism...
Dollar Strikes Back on Surging Yields, Gold Tumbles
Dollar is striking back today with some help from surging US yields. At the time of writing, 10-year yield is trading above 1.25 handle. Additionally, much stronger than expected manufacturing is support the greenback too. While European stocks are treading water, US futures point to higher open. Yen is...
Dollar Tumbled on Risk-On Sentiments Again, Ignored Yield Strength
Dollar ended as the worst performing one, reversing much of prior week's rebound. Risk-on sentiments appeared to be leading the greenback lower again, and boosted Australian Dollar as the strongest one. But the development in other major currencies were less clear.
The strength in stocks and oil were not much...
Dollar Rally Choked by Job Data, Spotlights Turn to Sterling and Aussie
Dollar was in a pole position to end as the strongest major currency. But disappointing non-farm payroll report gave dollar bulls a reality check as the greenback ended mixed, after late selloff. Australian and New Zealand Dollar have indeed closed as the best performers, followed by Sterling. Euro, Swiss...
Dollar Jumps on Sentiments U-Turn, But Upside Still Capped
The sharp turn in risk sentiments overnight pushed "safe-haven" currencies generally higher. Among them, Dollar is currently outperforming both Swiss Franc and Yen. On the other hand, Australian Dollar is leading other commodity currencies lower. Euro and Sterling are mixed, with the Pound having a slight upper hand.
Technically, the...
FOMC provided reality check, DOW and TNX tumbled but no change in up trend yet
US stocks markets suffered the steepest decline since October after Fed give investors a reality check on the state of the economy. FOMC kept monetary policy unchanged, and reiterated: "The path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus, including progress on vaccinations. The ongoing...
Euro, Sterling and Swiss Interplay Eyed as Volatility in Stocks and Yields Shrugged
The forex markets are very quiet in Asian session today as consolidative trading continues. The sharp decline in US treasury yields overnight, and the pull back in Asian stocks, triggered little reaction in currencies. Dollar and Yen are the slightly firmer ones for today so far, while commodity currencies...
US 10 year yield dived on stimulus concern, heading back to channel support
US 10-year yield dropped sharply overnight as concerns surfaced over the passage of President Joe Biden's USD 1.9T pandemic relief proposal in Congress. Senate majority Leader Chuck Schumer would try to push through some measures in early February. But a comprehensive deal may be four to six weeks away. But...
Euro Falls Against Commodity Currencies, Dollar Mixed Despite Pull Back in Yields
Selloff in Euro against commodity currencies appear to be a main theme today, in otherwise mixed markets. Dollar seems not too bothered by the pull back in treasury yields overnight and stays generally inside last week's range. Sterling is struggling to extend gain despite staying as the strongest one...
Dollar Firm on Upbeat Fedspeaks, at a Near Term Juncture
Dollar remains firm after some Fed officials' upbeat talks about the second half but buying appears to be slowing slightly in Asian session. Gold is also setting in range for now, reflecting some hesitation to push the greenback further higher. Yen and commodity currencies turned mixed, together with the...
Dollar Relatively Resilient in Strong Risk-on Market, Setting the Base for a Rebound?
Global investors were all in risk seeking mode in the first full week of 2021. That came despite all the headlines of surges in coronavirus infection and death, return to strict lockdowns, chaos in Washington and Joe Biden's certification as US President-Elect. Dollar didn't perform too well but there...
Week Ahead: Coronavirus Daily Cases and Bond Yields Both Moving Higher!
Headlines galore! The UK is back in lockdown as the coronavirus has overtaken the country and the word "variant” is now in everyone’s vocabulary. Democrats in the US now control the Senate with their victories in Georgia. President Trump attended a support rally on Wednesday, which ended with an...
Dollar Recovers Despite Strong Risk-on Markets, More Rebound after NFP?
Asian markets are staying in full risk on mode, except China, following the record runs in US overnight. However, this time, Dollar is not facing much selling pressure, but recovered instead. The reflation trade and strong rally in treasury yield might finally start to give the greenback a floor....
Non-farm payrolls will more likely disappoint then not
US non-farm payroll report will be a major focus before the first full week of 2021 is wrapped up. Markets are expecting non-farm payrolls to grow 100k in December. Unemployment rate is expected to edge up to 6.8% while average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.2% mom.
Looking at...
Dollar Down Trend Continues as DOW Hit Record, Yen Weaker on Yields
Dollar is recovering mildly today but remains one of the weakest for the week, together with Yen and Sterling. Solid risk appetite, with DOW closing strongly at new record overnight, is keeping the greenback and Yen pressured. Yen appears to be slightly weaker with the sharp rally in treasury...
US 10-year yield breaks 1% for the first time since March, more upside
US treasury yield opens sharply higher today with 10-year yield breaking 1% handle for the first time since March. The strong gap up now confirms resumption of whole rally from 0.0504. Technically, upper channel resistance at 1.130 is the next target.
Judging from the price actions in the forex markets...
Focus Turns to Yen Selling as Treasury Yields Surge
Yen selling takes center stage today, following strong rise in global treasury yields. In particular, US 10-year yield is trading at 0.99 at the time of writing, after hitting 1.037 earlier. Dollar remains generally pressured, and even the recovery against Yen is weak. The surprised contraction in ADP employment...
Dollar Index Might Find Temporary Support at 90 after Down Trend Resumption
Selloff in the Dollar was the main theme in the currency markets last week. With the arrival of coronavirus vaccines, the global economy looks set to return to normal next year, despite some cautious comments from central bankers. Yen might look worst than Dollar but it is indeed still...
Yen Down on Surging US Yields, Europeans Stay Strong
Yen trades generally lower today as pressured by surging US treasury yields and mild risk-on sentiments. Dollar and commodity currencies are not too far behind. European majors continue to be strong as led by Euro and Swiss Franc. Sterling is not performing too badly against others as traders are...
Markets Turned into Consolidation, With Conflicting Signals
Markets, including stocks, gold and currencies, were generally bounded in consolidative mode last week. News regarding coronavirus vaccines failed to give sentiments another boost. Instead, investors are waiting for fresh inspirations. Dollar ended as the worst performing one, but stayed inside prior week's range, except versus Kiwi. Euro, and...
New Zealand Dollar Rises after RBNZ, US Yield Resilient
New Zealand Dollar surges broadly today as markets see that RBNZ has less need to cut into negative next year. Kiwi's strength is somewhat taking Aussie higher too. On the other hand, Sterling is paring some of yesterday's strong gain while Dollar is following as second weakest for now....
Markets Mixed as Vaccine Boost Fades, Dollar Support by Yields
The forex markets turned mixed in Asian session today as the boost from coronavirus vaccine faded quickly. The close in US stocks overnight was rather disappointing and DOW ended up just 2.95%. NASDAQ has indeed closed with -1.53% loss. In the currency markets, Yen is trying to recover but...
Dollar strikes back as 10-yr yield breaks key resistance, Gold eyes key support
Dollar is trying to make a come back with strong rally in US treasury yield, as also confirmed by the steep fall in gold. 10 year yield is trading up 0.145 at 0.965 at the time of writing. Technically, the strong break of near term channel resistance is a...
Stocks Ready for Upside Breakout, But Yen Crosses Seem Not Agreeing
Politics aside, stock investors were the biggest winners of US presidential elections, while Dollar holders were the losers. The greenback ended as the worst performing one, followed by Yen by a wide margin. Australian Dollar shrugged of RBA easing and ended as the strongest, leading other commodity currencies. European...
Key Levels to Watch as US Presidential Election Looms
Global equities tumbled notably last week, partly as coronavirus spread was hitting new record highs. Also of the same importance, US investor had lightened up their positions in preparation for the Presidential elections. Yen and Dollar surged broadly to end as the strongest one. Euro was the worst performing,...