The August 2023 New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations has revealed a moderate increase in the median one- and five-year-ahead inflation expectations, both witnessing a rise of 0.1% to sit at 3.6% and 3.0%, respectively. However, expectations for three-year-ahead inflation demonstrated a dip, dropping by -0.1% to 2.8%.
On the unemployment front, there was a noticeable increase in mean unemployment expectations, with the mean probability of a higher unemployment rate one year from now spiking by 1.8%, settling at 38.5%. Despite this increase, the figure remains beneath its 12-month trailing average which stands at 40.2%.
Median expectation for growth in household income experienced a decrement, falling by -0.3% to arrive at 2.9% in August, marking the lowest figure since July 2021.
