EU Economy Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis acknowledged the US decision to pause reciprocal tariffs above 10% for 90 days as a positive step that opens the door to negotiations. However, he cautioned that the existing 10% duties still in place on nearly all countries continue to weigh on the global economy. Additionally, the US has not lifted its 25% tariffs on steel, aluminum, cars, and car parts—measures that remain a significant source of transatlantic economic tension.
Dombrovskis pointed to a model simulations indicating that the current US tariff structure could reduce US GDP by 0.8% to 1.4% through 2027. While the economic fallout for the EU is expected to be milder—around 0.2% of GDP—he warned that the damage could escalate dramatically if tariffs become entrenched or retaliatory actions intensify.
Under such a worst-case scenario, Dombrovskis said US GDP could fall by as much as 3.3%, with the EU losing up to 0.6% and global GDP shrinking by 1.2%. The impact on global trade would be particularly severe, with an estimated contraction of 7.7% over the next three years.
