Fed’s Barkin downplays ADP miss, needs more data before acting

Speaking to Fox Business, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin dismissed alarm over the unexpected drop in ADP employment, saying he’s more focused on the unemployment rate in Friday’s jobs report. With joblessness steady around 4.1% to 4.3% for over a year, Barkin suggested “that all feels like a pretty stable range”. He also noted that slower job growth must be seen in context with a cooling labor force, particularly as immigration flows ease.

Asked whether a weak payrolls figure could prompt the Fed to cut rates in July, Barkin avoided specifics and emphasized that the decision would depend on a broader set of inputs. “There’s more we’re going to learn,” he said, citing upcoming inflation data, tariff developments, and the pending tax bill. His remarks signal continued caution inside the Fed, even as market expectations lean toward a cut by September.

Despite recent data noise, Barkin remained cautiously optimistic. “What I see is a solid economy — not a strong economy — but a solid economy, one where people are not yet pulling back,” he said.