The ECB’s Q3 Survey of Professional Forecasters showed that headline inflation expectations have been revised down across the medium term. HICP inflation is now projected at 2.0% for 2025 (down from 2.2%) and 1.8% for 2026 (down from 2.0%), while 2027 remains unchanged at 2.0%. Core HICP inflation for 2025 is unchanged at 2.3%, but was revised down from 2.1% to 2.0% for both 2026 and 2027.
Respondents cited tariffs as having a small downward effect on inflation in the short term, subtracting roughly -0.06 percentage points from the HICP in both 2025 and 2026, but anticipated no lasting impact beyond that.
On growth, forecasters revised up their 2025 GDP forecast by 0.2 percentage points, trimmed 2026 by 0.1 points, and left 2027 unchanged at 1.4%.
 and 1.8% for 2026 (down from 2.0%), while 2027 remains unchanged at 2.0%. Core HICP inflation for 2025 is unchanged at 2.3%, but was revised down from 2.1% to 2.0% for both 2026 and 2027.){kind=link}