New Zealand’s ANZ Business Confidence index jumped from 58.1 to 67.1 in November, the strongest reading in 11 years. The survey’s own-activity outlook also surged from 44.6 to 53.1, marking the highest level since 2014 and signaling a material improvement in real economic momentum rather than sentiment alone. ANZ noted that “green shoots are looking well established”, with recent gains increasingly rooted in actual activity.
Inflation signals were more mixed. The share of firms planning to raise prices over the next three months climbed from 44% to 51%, the highest since March. However, expected cost increases eased slightly from 76% to 74%, and one-year-ahead inflation expectations were steady at 2.7%. The combination points to stabilizing inflation pressures, but not yet disinflation strong enough to encourage fresh easing from the RBNZ.
ANZ said the underlying improvement in conditions offers reassurance that the pickup is likely to be sustained. With the recovery underway and CPI sitting at the top of the target band, the bank sees little reason for further OCR cuts “barring unexpected developments.”
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