NZD/USD is trading steadily in range after New Zealand’s Q4 employment data delivered few surprises for policy expectations. The mixed report offered early hints of stabilization but stopped well short of forcing a rethink at the RBNZ. Interest rate is expected to remain on hold at 2.25% for most of the year.
The next policy move is still expected to be a hike rather than another cut, but timing remains highly uncertain. Whether that comes late in 2026 or slips into early 2027 will depend on how growth, inflation, and labor market slack evolve. For now, it is too early to draw firm conclusions.
Technically, NZD/USD continues to consolidate below the 0.6092 short-term top. While a deeper pullback cannot be ruled out, downside should be contained well above 0.5852 resistance turned support. Current rise from 0.5580 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 0.5484 (2025 low). Above 0.6092 should send NZD/USD through 0.6119 (2025 high) to 100% projection of 0.5484 to 0.6119 from 0.5580 at 0.6215.
Longer term, the 0.62 resistance area is decisive. Sitting near 38.2% retracement of 0.7463 (2021) to 0.5484 at 0.6240, it will define whether the recovery from 0.5484 evolves into a broader bullish trend reversal or stalls as a corrective rally within a dominant downtrend.
