Canada recorded its fourth consecutive monthly merchandise trade surplus in June, with exports and imports both reaching record levels. Exports rose 0.4% m/m to CAD 77.5B, while imports edged up 0.2% to CAD 73.6B, allowing the trade surplus to widen modestly from CAD 3.7B to CAD 3.9B. The latest figures extend a strong run for exports, which have increased for five straight months and are up 22.8% since January.
The headline strength, however, was partly a reflection of exchange-rate movements. The Canadian dollar posted its largest monthly decline against the US dollar since October 2022, boosting the value of trade when converted into Canadian dollars. In US-dollar terms, both exports and imports actually contracted by around -2% in June. Nevertheless, export volumes increased 1.1%, indicating that the improvement was not purely the result of currency translation.
Bilateral trade with the United States remained firm, though Canada’s surplus narrowed as imports grew faster than exports. Shipments to the US rose 0.3%, extending their growth streak to five months, while imports climbed 3.0%, driven mainly by computers and related equipment. Beyond the US, imports fell -3.7%, reflecting weaker purchases from China, South Korea and Germany. At the same time, exports to non-US markets increased 0.7%, helped by stronger gold shipments to the United Kingdom despite weaker exports of energy products and aluminum to the Netherlands.
Overall, the June report suggests Canada’s external sector remains in good shape, but the details are more nuanced than the headline figures imply. Record export values and a wider trade surplus are encouraging, yet the weaker Canadian dollar exaggerated part of the improvement. With export volumes still advancing and trade outside the United States showing signs of improvement, the underlying trend remains constructive, although sustaining that momentum will likely depend on continued strength in global demand rather than currency effects alone.
Data Summary
| Indicator | June 2026 | May 2026 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Merchandise exports | CAD 77.5B | CAD 77.2B | ▲ +0.4% (Record high) |
| Merchandise imports | CAD 73.6B | CAD 73.5B | ▲ +0.2% (Record high) |
| Trade balance | CAD 3.9B surplus | CAD 3.7B surplus | Surplus widened |
| Exports (volume) | +1.1% | — | Higher |
| Exports (USD terms) | -2.0% | — | Lower |
| Imports (USD terms) | -2.1% | — | Lower |
| Exports to US | +0.3% | — | Fifth straight gain |
| Imports from US | +3.0% | — | Record high |
| Trade surplus with US | CAD 10.0B | CAD 11.1B | Narrowed |
| Exports to non-US markets | +0.7% | — | Higher |
| Imports from non-US markets | -3.7% | — | Lower |
| Trade deficit with non-US markets | CAD 6.1B | CAD 7.4B | Narrowed |
Key Takeaways
- Canada’s merchandise trade surplus widened from CAD 3.7B to CAD 3.9B, marking a fourth consecutive monthly surplus.
- Both exports (CAD 77.5B) and imports (CAD 73.6B) reached record highs, with exports rising for a fifth straight month.
- The weaker Canadian dollar boosted headline trade values. In US-dollar terms, exports and imports both declined around 2%, highlighting the currency’s contribution to the record figures.
- Export growth was supported by higher shipment volumes, with real exports increasing 1.1%, indicating underlying trade remained resilient.
- Canada’s surplus with the United States narrowed as imports from the US grew faster than exports.
- Trade with the rest of the world improved, helped by stronger gold exports to the UK and weaker imports from China, South Korea and Germany.
