HomeLive CommentsUS NFP Smashes Forecasts With 162k Growth, July Revisions Turn Positive

US NFP Smashes Forecasts With 162k Growth, July Revisions Turn Positive

US job growth rebounded sharply in August, with nonfarm payrolls rising from a revised +21K in July to +162K, nearly three times 58K consensus. July was revised up from -23K, while June was revised from +20K to +31K, leaving combined June-July employment 55K higher than previously reported. Three-month average payroll growth improved to 71K, materially strengthening recent labor-market picture after a weak first half of summer.

Household data were also constructive. Unemployment held at 4.1%, matching expectations, even as labor force expanded by 683K. Employment rose by 569K, participation rate increased from 61.4% to 61.6%, and employment-population ratio rose from 58.9% to 59.1%. Broader underemployment also improved, with number working part time for economic reasons falling by 414K and U-6 rate declining from 7.9% to 7.7%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% m/m and 3.1% y/y, while average workweek edged from 34.3 to 34.4 hours.

Sector composition was strong but somewhat concentrated. Food services and drinking places added 59K jobs, while local government education gained 42K, together accounting for more than 100K of headline increase. Manufacturing added 16K, construction 22K and health care 13K, while information employment fell 23K. Private payrolls still rose a solid 127K, and private-sector diffusion index improved from 52.8 to 55.6, suggesting gains were broader than two headline sectors alone.

Overall, August report delivers a clear upside employment surprise, reinforced by large positive revisions and firmer household indicators, while wage growth remained contained rather than overheating.

Data Summary

Indicator August July Consensus
Nonfarm payrolls +162K +21K +58K
Unemployment rate 4.1% 4.1% 4.1%
Labor force participation rate 61.6% 61.4%
Employment-population ratio 59.1% 58.9%
Private payrolls +127K +71K
Average hourly earnings m/m +0.3% +0.2% +0.3%
Average hourly earnings y/y +3.1%
Average workweek 34.4 hours 34.3 hours

July payrolls were revised sharply from -23K to +21K, while June was revised from +20K to +31K. Combined June-July employment was 55K higher than previously reported.

Payroll Composition

Sector August Change
Food services and drinking places +59K
Local government education +42K
Construction +22K
Manufacturing +16K
Health care +13K
Information -23K
Total private +127K

Key Takeaways

  • US payroll growth accelerated sharply from a revised +21K to +162K, nearly three times +58K consensus.
  • Revisions significantly improved recent labor-market picture: July was turned from -23K to +21K, while June was raised to +31K.
  • Three-month average payroll growth improved to 71K, versus 38K through July.
  • Unemployment held at 4.1% even as participation rose from 61.4% to 61.6%, making household-survey details more constructive than July.
  • Household employment increased by 569K, while labor force expanded by 683K.
  • Broader labor underutilization improved, with U-6 falling from 7.9% to 7.7% and part-time employment for economic reasons dropping by 414K.
  • Wage growth was firm but not hotter than expected, with average hourly earnings rising 0.3% m/m and 3.1% y/y.
  • Hiring was somewhat concentrated in food services and local government education, but private payrolls still rose 127K and diffusion index improved from 52.8 to 55.6.
  • Overall, August report is a clear upside employment surprise, strengthened further by large positive revisions and healthier participation dynamics.

Full US NFP release here.

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