US durable goods orders lost momentum in August, with headline orders slowing from +0.9% to virtually unchanged, leaving the total at $338.6bn. The weakness was concentrated in transportation equipment, where orders fell -0.6%, including a -4.3% decline in nondefense aircraft and -0.6% in motor vehicles and parts. Excluding transportation, orders still rose +0.3%, while orders excluding defense increased +0.1%.
The more important underlying signal came from business investment. Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft accelerated from +0.6% to +1.6% m/m, while shipments of the same category eased from +1.4% to a still-solid +0.6%. Machinery orders rose +1.1%, electrical equipment and components +1.1%, and computers and related products +1.5%, pointing to continued strength in equipment demand despite the flat headline.
The report therefore points to transport volatility rather than broad manufacturing weakness. Total durable-goods shipments fell from +0.9% to -0.2%, ending an eight-month run of increases, but unfilled orders rose another +0.6% and inventories increased +0.5% for an eleventh consecutive month. With core capital-goods orders strengthening even as the headline stalled, the August data suggest underlying business investment demand remained resilient.
Data Summary
| Indicator | Previous | Current |
|---|---|---|
| Durable Goods Orders | +0.9% | Virtually unchanged |
| Orders Excluding Transportation | +0.7% | +0.3% |
| Orders Excluding Defense | +1.4% | +0.1% |
| Transportation Equipment Orders | +1.2% | -0.6% |
| Core Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft | +0.6% | +1.6% |
| Core Capital Goods Shipments ex Aircraft | +1.4% | +0.6% |
| Durable Goods Shipments | +0.9% | -0.2% |
| Unfilled Orders | +0.6% | +0.6% |
| Inventories | +0.5% | +0.5% |
Headline orders were virtually unchanged at $338.6bn, but the details were stronger outside transportation. Core nondefense capital-goods orders excluding aircraft accelerated sharply to +1.6%.
Key Takeaways
- US durable goods orders slowed from +0.9% to virtually unchanged in August, with the headline held back by transportation equipment.
- Transportation orders fell -0.6%, including a -4.3% decline in nondefense aircraft orders and -0.6% in motor vehicles and parts.
- Orders excluding transportation still rose +0.3%, indicating the weakness was not broad-based.
- The strongest underlying signal came from core nondefense capital-goods orders excluding aircraft, which accelerated from +0.6% to +1.6%.
- Core capital-goods shipments remained positive at +0.6% after +1.4% in July, suggesting business equipment investment remained firm.
- Machinery orders rose +1.1%, electrical equipment +1.1%, and computers and related products +1.5%, adding to the firm capex picture.
- Total durable-goods shipments fell -0.2%, ending eight consecutive monthly increases, with transportation again the main drag.
- Unfilled orders rose another +0.6% and inventories +0.5%, pointing to a still-substantial manufacturing pipeline.
- Overall, the report looks firmer beneath the flat headline: transportation volatility masked continued strength in business investment demand.
