AUD/USD’s rebound from 0.6722 short term bottom extended higher last week. And despite loss of upside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD, there is no sign of topping yet. Initial bias remains mildly on the upside for further rally. But upside should be limited by 0.7393 resistance to bring reversal. On the downside, break of 0.7116 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.6722 low.

In the bigger picture, the failure to sustain below 0.6826 (2016 low) suggests that the long term down trend is not ready to resume yet. But prior rejection by 55 week EMA indicates underlying medium term bearishness in the pair. Outlook will also stay bearish as long as 0.7393 resistance holds. On the downside, sustained break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 (2008 low).

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In the longer term picture, prior rejection by 55 month EMA maintained long term bearishness in AUD/USD. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Sustained break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 low and then 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.


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