Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7124; (P) 0.7140; (R1) 0.7153; More…
AUD/USD’s break of 0.7139 minor support suggests that corrective rise from 0.7003 could have completed with three waves up to 0.7205 already. Intraday bas is turned back to the downside for 0.7052 support first. Break there will likely resume whole fall from 0.7295 through 0.7003 support. On the upside, break of 0.7205 is needed to confirm resumption of the rebound from 0.7003. Otherwise, risk will stay mildly on the downside in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, break of medium term channel resistance is the first sign of bullish reversal. But there is no confirmation yet. As long as 0.7393 resistance holds, larger fall from 0.8135 is still expected to resume later. Such decline is seen as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.
