AUD/USD’s rise from 0.6831 resumed last week by breaking 0.7047 resistance to 0.7082. As a temporary top was formed, initial bias is neutral this week first. Further rally is expected as long as 0.6996 minor support holds. Break ow 0.7082 will target 100% projection of 0.6831 to 0.7047 from 0.6910 at 0.7126. Sustained break there will indicate solid upside momentum for 0.7205 resistance next. On the downside, break of 0.6996 will suggest that the rebound has completed and turn bias to the downside for 0.6910 support instead.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7393 key resistance intact, medium term outlook remains bearish. The decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

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In the longer term picture, prior rejection by 55 month EMA maintained long term bearishness in AUD/USD. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Sustained break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 low and then 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.


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