AUD/USD’s up trend continued last week and reached as high as 0.7639, matched 0.7635 key long term fibonacci level. As a temporary top was formed, initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations first. On the upside, sustained break of 0.7639 will carry larger bullish implications. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 0.5506 to 0.7413 from 0.6991 at 0.8170. Considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 0.7507 support will indicate short term topping, and turn bias to the downside for pull back.
In the bigger picture, the sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6994) is a sign of medium term bullishness. Nevertheless, AUD/USD will still need to overcome 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635 decisively to indicate completion of long term down trend from 1.1079. In that case, next medium term target would be 61.8% retracement at 0.8950. Rejection by 0.7635 will retain long term bearishness instead.
In the longer term picture, bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD is a condition for long term bullish reversal. Focus will be on 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635. Decisive break there should confirm reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 0.8950. Though, rejection by 0.7635 will retain long term bearishness for another low through 0.5506 at a later stage.
