AUD/USD recovered after edging lower to 0.7476 last week, but upside is limited below 0.7644 support turned resistance. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 0.7476 will resume the corrective pattern from 0.8006 towards 100% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7530 from 0.7890 at 0.7414. We’d expect strong support from there to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 0.7644 support turned resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 0.7890 resistance. However, sustained break of 0.7414 will argue it’s at least in larger scale correction, and target 161.8% projection at 0.7120 next.
In the bigger picture, rise from 0.5506 medium term bottom could either be the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. Rejection by 0.8135 key resistance, followed by firm break of 0.7413 resistance turned support, will favors the latter case. Deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051 first.
In the longer term picture, 0.5506 is a long term bottom, on bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD. Focus is now back on 0.8135 structural resistance. Decisive break there will raise the chance that rise from 0.5506 is an impulsive up trend. Next target should be 61.8% retracement at 0.8950 of 1.1079 to 0.5506 and above. Though, rejection by 0.8135 will keep the case of medium to long term sideway consolidation open.
