AUD/USD’s rise from 0.6269 resumed last week and the break of medium term falling channel suggests that whole fall from 0.7156 has completed with three waves down to 0.6269. Initial bias stays on the upside this week. Further rise should be seen to 0.6894 resistance next. Meanwhile, near term outlook will stay cautiously bullish as long as 0.6524 support holds, in case of retreat.
In the bigger picture, there is no confirmation that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. Price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) could be just a medium term corrective pattern. Rise from 0.6269 is seen as the third leg of the pattern. For now, range trading should be seen between 0.6169 and 0.7156 (2023 high), until further developments.
In the long term picture, the down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. It’s unsure yet whether price actions from 0.5506 are developing into a corrective pattern, or trend reversal. But in either case, fall from 0.8006 is seen the second leg of the pattern. Hence, in case of deeper decline, downside strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to bring reversal.
