AUD/USD’s rally continued last week despite interim retreat. Initial bias is on the upside this week with focus on 0.6798 resistance. Firm break there will extend the rally from 0.6348 to 0.6870 resistance next. On the downside, below 0.6696 support turn bias to the downside for deeper pull back instead.
In the bigger picture, overall, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern. Rise from 0.6340 is likely developing into another rising leg. Firm break of 0.6798/6870 resistance zone will target 0.7156 resistance. In case of another fall, strong support should be seen from 0.6169/6361 to bring rebound.
In the long term picture, the down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. It’s unsure yet whether price actions from 0.5506 are developing into a corrective pattern, or trend reversal. But in either case, fall from 0.8006 is seen as the second leg of the pattern. Hence, in case of deeper decline, strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to bring reversal.
