AUD/USD spiked lower to 0.6087 last week but rebounded strongly since then. But with 0.6329 resistance intact, outlook will stay bearish. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Below 0.6239 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.6087 low. However, firm break of 0.6329 will bring stronger rebound to 38.2% retracement of 0.6941 to 0.6087 at 0.6413, even just as a corrective move.
In the bigger picture, fall from 0.6941 (2024 high) is seen as part of the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Next medium term target is 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 from 0.6941 at 0.5806. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.6525) holds.
In the long term picture, prior rejection by 55 M EMA (now at 0.6846) is taken as a bearish signal. But for now, fall from 0.8006 is still seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 0.5506 long term bottom (2020 low). Hence, in case of deeper fall, strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to contain downside to bring reversal. However, this view is subject to adjustment if current decline accelerates further.
