EUR/AUD surged to as high as 1.6351 last week. The development indicates that pull back from 1.6353 has completed with three waves down to 1.5984 already. And the larger up trend is ready to resume. Initial bias stays on the upside this week. Decisive break of 1.6353 will confirm this bullish case and target 1.6857 key resistance next. On the downside, below 1.6248 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring retreat. But downside should be contained well above 1.5984 support to bring another rally.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.3624 (2017 low) is still in progress. Further rise should be seen to retest 1.6587 (2015 high). Decisive break there will resume the long term rally and target 1.7488 fibonacci level. On the downside, break of 1.5984 support is need to be the first sign of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of deep pull back.

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In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom (2012 low) isn’t over yet. We’ll keep monitoring the development but there is prospect of extending the rise to 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488 and above. However, sustained trading below 1.3624 key support should indicate long term reversal and target 1.1602 long term bottom again.

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