EUR/AUD’s pullback was a little deeper than expected last week, but it nonetheless recovered after hitting 1.7798. Initial bias remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 1.7965 minor resistance will bring retest of 1.8160. Firm break there will solidify the case that larger up trend is resuming. However, below 1.7798 will dampen this week and suggest that corrective pattern from 1.8554 is still extending. In this case, deeper fall should be seen to 1.7569 support instead.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.8554 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern, which might have completed already. Firm break of 1.8554 will resume larger up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low), and target 61.8% projection of 1.5963 to 1.8554 from 1.7569 at 1.9170. Nevertheless, break of 1.7569 support will delay the bullish case and extend the correction from 1.8554.
In the longer term picture, rise from 1.4281 is seen as the second leg of the pattern from 1.9799 (2020 high), which is part of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). As long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.6506) holds, this second leg could still extend higher.
