EUR/AUD’s extended rebound last week confirmed short term bottoming at 1.6125. Initial bias stays on the upside this week. Sustained break of 55 D EMA (now at 0.6756) will pave the way to 38.2% retracement of 1.8554 to 1.6125 at 1.7053. On the downside, below 1.6607 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.
In the bigger picture, fall from 1.8554 medium term top is seen as reversing the whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.5913, which is slightly below 1.5963 structural support. Decisive break there will pave the way back to 1.4281. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.7226) holds, even in case of strong rebound.
In the longer term picture, rise from 1.4281 is seen as the second leg of the pattern from 1.9799 (2020 high), which is part of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). Current development argue that it has already completed at 1.8554. Sustained trading below 55 M EMA (now at 1.6592) will confirm this bearish case, and pave the way back towards 1.4281.
 will pave the way to 38.2% retracement of 1.8554 to 1.6125 at 1.7053. On the downside, below 1.6607 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.){kind=link}