EUR/AUD’s rise from 1.6108 resumed last week and hit 1.6516 then retreated. Initial bias stays neutral this week for consolidations first. Further rally is in favor as long as 1.6334 minor support holds. Above 1.6516 will target 161.8% projection of 1.6108 to 1.6381 from 1.6186 at 1.6628 next. However, firm break of 1.6334 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.6108/6186 support zone instead.
In the bigger picture, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.6842 resistance holds. Fall from 1.8554 (2025 high) is expected to continue to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.5913. Decisive break there will pave the way back to 1.4281 (2022 low). However, firm break of 1.6842 should confirm medium term bottoming, and bring stronger rally.
In the longer term picture, fall from 1.8554 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.9799 (2020 high), which is part of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). Sustained trading below 55 M EMA (now at 1.6569) will confirm this bearish case, and pave the way back towards 1.4281.
