EUR/AUD’s break of 1.6072 support last week indicates resumption of whole down trend from 1.8554. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 61.8% projection of 1.6617 to 1.6072 from 1.6334 at 1.597. Firm break there will target 100% projection at 1.5789. On the upside, above 1.6119 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.6334 resistance holds, in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.8554 (2025 high) is in progress. Firm break of 1.5963 (2024 low). Should confirm that it’s already reversing whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) and pave the way to this support. For now, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.6334 resistance holds.
In the longer term picture, fall from 1.8554 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.9799 (2020 high), which is part of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). Sustained trading below 55 M EMA (now at 1.6554) will confirm this bearish case, and pave the way back towards 1.4281.
