EUR/CHF stayed in consolidation below 1.1476 and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.2004 to 1.1162 at 1.1484 will confirm completion of corrective fall from 1.2004. Further rally should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.1682 and above. On the downside, sustained break of 55 day EMA (now at 1.1347) will pave the way back to retest 1.1162 low.
In the bigger picture, at this point, we’re slightly favoring the case that corrective fall from 1.2004 has completed after being supported by 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154. Decisive break of 1.1501 resistance should confirm and target 1.1713 resistance next. On the downside, firm break of 1.1154 is needed to confirm down trend resumption. Otherwise, medium term outlook will be neutral at worst.
In the long term picture, current development suggests that medium term fall from 1.2004 is merely a corrective move. That is, up trend from 0.9771 is not completed yet. Nevertheless, there is little prospect of up trend resumption yet. More range trading should be seen in medium term.
