EUR/CHF’s down trend from 1.1149 resumed last week and reached as low as 1.0740. Initial bias remains on the downside this week. Sustained trading below 1.0737/0751 support zone will pave the way to retest 1.0505 low. On the upside, break of 1.0802 support turned resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, rebound from 1.0505 (2020 low) should have completed at 1.1149 already. The three wave corrective structure argues that the downtrend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is not over yet. Medium term outlook will now stay bearish as long as 1.1149 resistance holds. Break of 1.0505 low would be seen at a later stage.
In the long term picture, rejection by 55 month EMA (now at 1.1068) retains long term bearishness. Break of 1.0505 low will resume down trend to 61.8% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 1.0223.
