EUR/CHF’s rebound from 1.0694 short term bottom continued last week. The break of 1.0839 resistance argues that fall from 1.1149 might be completed already. Further rise is expected this week as long as 1.0780 support holds, for 1.0985 resistance next. However, on the downside, break of 1.0780 will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.0694 low instead.
In the bigger picture, rebound from 1.0505 (2020 low) should have completed at 1.1149 already. The three-wave corrective structure argues that the downtrend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is not over yet. Medium term outlook will now stay bearish as long as 55 week EMA (now at 1.0859) holds. Break of 1.0505 low would be seen at a later stage. However, sustained trading above 55 week EMA will bring retest of 1.1149 high instead.
In the long term picture, rejection by 55 month EMA (now at 1.1056) retains long term bearishness. Break of 1.0505 low will resume down trend to 61.8% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 1.0223.
