EUR/CHF edged higher to 1.0899 last week but retreated since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week for some consolidations first. Another rise is mildly in favor for now and break of 1.0899 will resume the rebound from 1.0694 to 1.0985 resistance next. However, on the downside, sustained trading below 55 day EMA (now at 1.0825) will turn focus back to 1.0694 low.
In the bigger picture, rebound from 1.0505 (2020 low) should have completed at 1.1149 already. The three-wave corrective structure argues that the downtrend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is not over yet. Medium term outlook will now stay bearish as long as 55 week EMA (now at 1.0858) holds. Break of 1.0505 low would be seen at a later stage. However, sustained trading above 55 week EMA will bring retest of 1.1149 high instead.
In the long term picture, rejection by 55 month EMA (now at 1.1056) retains long term bearishness. Break of 1.0505 low will resume down trend to 61.8% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 1.0223.
