EUR/CHF’s down trend resumed last week and hit as low as 0.9697. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 0.9650 long term projection level. Some support might be seen there to bring rebound. But break of 0.9948 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish Firm break of 0.9650 will target 100% projection of 1.1149 to 0.9970 from 1.0513 at 0.9334.
In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is expected to target 100% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 0.9650. Firm break there will target 138.2% projection at 0.9033. On the upside, break of 1.0513 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of strong rebound.
In the long term picture, capped below 55 month EMA, EUR/CHF is seen as extending the multi-decade down trend. There is no prospect of a bullish reversal until some sustained trading above the 55 month EMA (now at 1.0808).
