EUR/CHF’s extended decline and break of 0.9359 support revived the case that corrective rise from 0.9204 has already completed at 0.9516. Further fall is expected this week as long as 0.9414 resistance holds, to retest 0.9204 low. On the upside, though, break of 0.9414 resistance will mix up the outlook again and turn intraday bias neutral.
In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 38.2% retracement of 0.9928 to 0.9204 at 0.9481 should confirm that whole fall from 0.9928 has completed at 0.9204. Further rally should then be seen back to 61.8% retracement at 0.9651 and above. However, another rejection by 0.9481 will keep outlook bearish for extending larger down trend through 0.9204 at a later stage.
In the long term picture, as long as 0.9928 resistance holds, the multi-decade down trend remains intact, with decline from 1.2004 (2018 high) as another falling leg. Decisive break of 0.9252 (2023 low) will confirm long term down trend resumption to 61.8% projection of 1.1149 to 0.9407 from 0.9928 at 0.8851.
