EUR/CHF’s steep pullback last week suggests short term topping at 0.9408. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations first. Below 0.9304 will bring deeper pullback, but downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 0.8979 to 0.9408 at 0.9244 to bring rebound. Firm break of 0.9408 will resume larger rise from 0.8979.
In the bigger picture, the failure to sustain above 0.9394 dampen the bullish case. Outlook is turned neutral first. On the upside, firm break of 0.9394 should confirm that rise from 0.8979 medium term is at least reversing the fall from 0.9928 (2024 high), with prospect of developing into a medium term up trend. Further rally should be seen to 0.9660 resistance next. However, sustained break of 0.9264 resistance turned support will revive medium term bearishness, and bring retest of 0.8979 low instead.
In the long term picture, focus is now on 0.9407 support turned resistance (2022 low). Sustained break there will argue that the down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) has completed with five waves down to 0.8979. Stronger rebound should then be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.2004 to 0.8979 at 1.0135 in the medium term.
