EUR/GBP’s decline from 0.8840 extended to as low as 0.8660 last week before recovering slightly. The development argues that corrective rise from 0.8617 might have completed already. Initial bias is neutral this week first with deeper decline is favor. Break of 0.8666 will target 0.8617/20 key support zone. Decisive break there will resume larger down trend. On the upside, above 0.8762 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside for 0.8840 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, EUR/GBP is seen as staying in long term range pattern started at 0.9304 (2016 high). On the downside, decisive break of 0.8620 support will resume the falling leg from 0.9305 (2017 high) to 100% projection of 0.9305 to 0.8620 from 0.9101 at 0.8416. In that case, we’d expect strong support around 0.8312 to contain downside and bring rebound.
In the long term picture, we’re holding on to the view that rise from 0.6935 (2015 low) is resuming the up trend from 0.5680 (2000 low). As long as 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) holds, further rise should be seen through 0.9305 to 0.9799 and above down the road.
